Like last year’s edition, Cisco’s latest version of its [URL?] Global Cloud Index (2013–2018) forecast is for more – a lot more – cloud. According to the report, datacenter traffic – datacenter-to-user traffic, datacenter-to-datacenter traffic and traffic that remains within datacenters – is expected to nearly triple, with the cloud expected to represent 76% of the total datacenter traffic by 2018, up from 54% of the 2013 traffic.
Each year the survey brings in additional data sources, and expands its analysis, Cisco’s Shruti Jain, Senior Analyst, SP Thought Leadership, told IT Trends & Analysis. “This year we covered public versus private segmentation, which we haven’t done in the past.” Other areas covered include: datacenter traffic; cloud service delivery models, i.e. IaaS, PaaS; Internet of Everything; and global cloud readiness. “Basically, we’re seeing growth in datacenter traffic.”
The public-versus-private findings were a surprise, said Jain. “Private cloud is much bigger than public cloud.”
It wasn’t completely unexpected, she said, because private cloud was what’s leading the cloud deployment public cloud adoption is picking up. “The share is going to increase; but it will still stay less than private cloud”.
Jain said the public cloud is not ready for the enterprise market, which is still in the test/development phase, testing public cloud from the performance and security perspectives. However, public clouds are growing much faster than private clouds, with enterprises willing to experiment to move less critical workloads to public clouds.
Security, performance compliance and even cost issues remain for enterprises, she said. “We do not see them in a hurry to shut down their private clouds. It will be hybrid at best during the forecast period”, said Jain. Although public cloud workloads are projected to have strong growth; by 2018, 69% (113.5 million) of cloud workloads will still be supported by private cloud data centers, down from 78% (44.2 million) in 2013.
There’s big growth happening on the datacenter side, she said. Cloud workloads have already surpassed
traditional datacenter workloads, especially in the North American market, and they will continue to decline, said Jain. Regarding workload density, “cloud density will outpace datacenter threefold.”
Growth may be strong, but this year’s study did find that growth flattening somewhat, said Cisco’s Arielle Sumits. Last year’s growth was predicted at 25% compound annual growth rate during the forecast period, but that number is now down to 23% CAGR. She attributed the flattening to several elements, including a somewhat maturing market, and greater efficiencies in datacenters. One area where datacenter growth has accelerated is datacenter-to-datacenter, mainly because of CDN and intercloud traffic, she said.
The key takeaway from this year’s study is that the cloud has become a global phenomenon, said Jain. In addition to total cost of ownership, enterprises will need other issues to balance related to security, performance and regulatory issues.
Although not new – i.e. Cisco’s ‘world of many clouds’ – Jain said enterprises will not go with just one provider, one kind of cloud. “One model doesn’t fit all.”